What would a Labour government mean for NI landlords?
Whilst you can never say never, it looks like the next UK government will be a Labour one, so what does that mean for Northern Ireland landlords and local property prices?
As far as housing regulation goes, very little, as that is devolved to Stormont. That said, locally we often follow GB laws and the biggest change might be "no-fault" evictions. This is where at the end of the tenancy, a landlord cannot evict a tenant unless there has been a fault, they want to live in the house, sell it, or possibly alter it.
The biggest effect they may have is through the economy and taxation. If things go better, then there will be more money about, which usually has the effect of increasing property prices, including rents. But a faltering economy does not necessarily mean that rents would stagnate or fall. This is down to supply and demand, and supply has been decreasing mostly as a result of the Conservatives failed policies. Many landlords have sold up due to increased regulations, unfair tax and high interest rates. On the latter, if interest rates fall, this could help rent rises slow off or plateau. If landlords start buying again and increasing the supply, this could start to re-balance the supply-demand equation. That said, for various reasons, demand may still outstrip supply.
It is not entirely correct to say that landlord-investors are not buying; they are, mainly through limited company structures to avoid unfair taxation, however many landlords are still in a situation where they have to pay more tax proportionately than any other small business. Even if a landlord makes a loss, they could still have income tax to pay on their rental business. It is unlikely that Labour will change this, as the left of the party would see this as going soft on landlords who are almost constantly, and wrongly, badged as greedy. But a fair tax system for landlords would mean fairer rents for tenants.
Labour will likely have to increase their borrowing to pay for their plans. Whilst large scale public investment can temporarily boost the economy, it can lead to higher interest rates, and of course, lower taxes.
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